Last week, I prayed with an elderly couple that seemed distraught over the latest events in the Middle East, particularly where Israel is concerned. Yesterday, I took part in a multi-church event we call "Operation: Jesus." This involves donning the official t-shirt and going door-to-door praying for people and leaving a Billy Graham tract. Along with my "team" - a new Christian mother and her 16-year old daughter - we approached an old woman sitting on her porch with her dog. After we explained that we weren't recruiting, and that we were merely people from different churches all working together to pray, she was impressed. At 101 years old, sharp as a tack, she said, "the worst thing that I have seen happen to American Christianity has been the rise of denominationalism." She later added, "...if I were not already a Christian, I'd sure be thinking about it..." referring to the current state of the planet.
So, are we approaching the "end of the age" spoken of in Scripture? Is the return of Jesus Christ the world's next big thing?
The Bible plainly states that Jesus Christ WILL come again (Matthew 24:3, 30, 37, 44). Jesus said (Matthew 24:36), "But of that day and hour knoweth no man, no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father only."
The Father only?? Not even Jesus?? Then, how can WE know?
His original disciples thought He'd be right back soon after His ascension. Later, some thought A.D 1000 and then A.D. 2000 might mark His return. Certainly, Jesus could return tonight or in 100 or 1,000 years, if He comes at all. It's all conjecture. But Bible prophecies have been checked off one by one as they've occurred throughout world history and that which is happening on the world scene today offers a sobering perspective.
When the disciples asked when they could expect His return (Matthew 24:3), the Lord mentioned four major signposts (Matthew 24:4-7). Jesus added that these escalating events are merely "the beginning of sorrows" (Matthew 24:8), and that His disciples should remain "watchful" so they can recognize and announce that His return is knocking at the door. Well, WE are His disciples, too, and we've had the very same instructions handed down to us through generations of Christians that came before us. Some critics pooh-pooh such predictions by insisting that these types of events have ALWAYS taken place. True, there is nothing new under the sun. But up until Jesus was born in a manger, babies, too, had been being brought into the world for eons. Students of Bible prophecy claim that all their claims hinge upon Israel becoming an independent Jewish religious state in 1948.
The four signposts of Matthew 24:4-7 include:
1) RELIGIOUS DECEPTION, FALSE CHRISTS, FALSE RELIGIONS, FALSE GOSPELS
The proponents and adherents to the many religions of the world would agree on one logical thing, i.e., they can't ALL be right. Despite all of today's religious tolerance talk, logic tells us that universal religious accuracy cannot be attained. In other words, many people are obviously deceived where the things of Christ are concerned. But such religious deception is not a new thing. Many believe that the Bible describes the coming of a prominent religious figure who will deceive millions by doing miracles and promoting lies in place of Biblical truth (based upon 2 Thessalonians 2:3-12; Revelation 13:11-14). The media will surely assist in the demonic cause of this False Prophet. The stage is set. We're primed for such an individual and false "messiahs" have already been popping up. One such a man goes by the name "Lord Matreya." I heard a Christian radio show where, after many came to hear him speak, the announcer was seeking interviews from attendees who claimed to be Christian. One man, claiming to be an Episcopalian, responded, "It could be him...the world sure could use a Christ right now." Such deception, brought about as a result of Biblical illiteracy, is everywhere. In August, 1999, the Archbishop of Canterbury told 70 million Anglicans that we cannot be sure Jesus was resurrected, casting doubt on the central tenet of Christianity! I've observed similar lies being told by so-called religious "leaders" to their systematically dumbed-down flocks all the time.
2) WARS AND RUMORS OF WARS
Jesus predicted that the end of the age would be marked by "wars and rumors of wars" (Matthew 24:6). Wars have been with us for millennia, yet the 20th century was the first time in history when the entire world went to war...TWICE. Today, there are gang wars, a war on terrorism, drug wars and even star wars. Jesus foretold that "nation would rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom" (Matthew 24:7). The word "kingdom" refers to an empire, a political entity. "Nation" (ethnos) refers to a literal nation, but also a tribe, race or social group. In recent decades, ethnic strife over religion, race, gender and moral choices, can be found in every culture and subculture on the planet. A Harvard University international relations expert wrote that "in the emerging era, clashes of civilizations are the greatest threat to world peace" (The Clash of Civilizations, Huntington, 1996, p. 321). What Jesus said would happen at the end of the age is happening NOW! For those praying and believing for world peace, sorry; there will be no peace until the Prince of Peace returns. When Scripture instructs that we should "Pray for the peace of Jerusalem," I contend that the peace being referred to is Jesus himself. Unlike the Beatle's altruistic song, the world will NOT be as one. In fact, like a woman's birth pangs, getting harder and closer together, things will be getting worse before they get better.
3) FAMINES AND PESTILENCES, DISEASES & EPIDEMICS
Incurable diseases such as AIDS and bird flu are causing worldwide panic and devastation. Even diseases once considered conquered (tuberculosis, cholera and malaria) are returning with a vengeance, as bacteria become resistant to antibiotics. Medical experts warn that rapid international travel and deteriorating social, political and sanitary conditions in many parts of the world have created the potential for widespread disease epidemics.
Even hospitals aren't safe anymore. CBS Television reported (March 15, 2005, The Early Show) that "about two million infections are acquired in U.S. hospitals each year, killing about 90,000 patients." Dr. Tim Wilkin of Weill-Cornell Medical College says the types of bacteria in a hospital are different from bacteria out in the world in general. He says. "They can be resistant to antibiotics, which makes them more difficult to treat…."
4) EARTHQUAKES
These days, there's a whole lotta shakin' going' on! Charles Spurgeon said, in 1868, "At this present time, the groaning and travailing which are general throughout creation, are deeply felt among the sons of men." Yes, unprecedented environmental conditions are also raising serious concerns. Global warming trends are disrupting weather patterns around the world, producing record-breaking droughts, forest fires, storms and floods. Famines exist on several continents. The hottest years ever recorded have occurred in this past decade. Earthquake activity is growing more dangerous as people crowd into built-up urban areas.
The Apostle Paul , too, had something to say about the end of the age. He wrote, "in the last days perilous times will come: for men will be lovers of themselves, lovers of money, boasters, proud, blasphemers, disobedient to parents… brutal… lovers of pleasures rather than lovers of God… having a form of godliness [a superficial religion]" (2 Timothy 3:1-5). How accurately does this describes the affluent, amoral, increasingly violent culture we live in today. Ever since the end of World War II and the social upheaval of the 1960s, things are simply worse than they used to be. When I asked the 101-year old woman I prayed for yesterday if she's seen many changes in her life, she responded, "Oh, yes, I have...most of them NOT good..."
Paul also wrote, "We know that the whole creation groaneth and travaileth in pain together until now. And not only they, but ourselves also, which have the first-fruits of the Spirit, even we ourselves groan within ourselves, waiting for the adoption, to wit, the redemption of our body." (Romans 8:22-23).
In his letter to the church at Thessalonica (1 Thessalonians 5:1-11), he penned these words of encouragement, "But concerning the times and the seasons, brethren, you have no need that I should write to you. For you yourselves know perfectly that the day of the Lord so comes as a thief in the night. For when they say, "Peace and safety!" then sudden destruction comes upon them, as labor pains upon a pregnant woman. And they shall not escape. But you, brethren, are not in darkness, so that this Day should overtake you as a thief. You are all sons of light and sons of the day. We are not of the night nor of darkness. Therefore let us not sleep, as others do, but let us watch and be sober. For those who sleep, sleep at night, and those who get drunk are drunk at night. But let us who are of the day be sober, putting on the breastplate of faith and love, and as a helmet the hope of salvation. For God did not appoint us to wrath, but to obtain salvation through our Lord Jesus Christ, who died for us, that whether we wake or sleep, we should live together with Him. Therefore comfort each other and edify one another, just as you also are doing."
The Apostle Peter, too, gave his take on the last days. He wrote that "scoffers will come in the last days… saying, 'where is the promise of His coming?'" (2 Peter 3:3-5). He was referring to the skepticism and willful ignorance about important Biblical teachings that will characterize those days. I believe this is even the case today as our so-called Christian nation (the USA) arrogantly seems to be in denial that these things could ever happen to us. After all, we're busy; we have stuff to do!
But amidst our hustle and bustle, the earth groans.
SIGNS IN THE HEAVENS
Luke 21:25-28 declares: "There will be signs in the sun, moon and stars. On the earth, nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea. Men will faint from terror, apprehensive of what is coming on the world, for the heavenly bodies will be shaken. At that time they will see the Son of Man coming in a cloud with power and great glory. When these things begin to take place, stand up and lift up your heads, because your redemption is drawing near."
Verse 25 depicts the end times as being signaled, not by one sign, but by many signs. Apparently, the coming of the Lord will be preceded by cosmic chaos. The verses depict that, in the heavens, the sun, moon, and stars will be affected. On earth, the sea will be tossing and roaring. Should we take these verses literally? I'm no expert, but I am inclined to do so. Why? For starters, we know that what goes on in the heavens, can affect things on earth - the moon's gravitational pull creates the tides in the seas, for example. In addition, the prophecies of the book of Revelation speak of cosmic and earthly chaos in what seems to be literal terms. You decide:
Revelation 6:12-17: "I watched as he opened the sixth seal. There was a great earthquake. The sun turned black like sackcloth made of goat hair, the whole moon turned blood red, and the stars in the sky fell to earth, as late figs drop from a fig tree when shaken by a strong wind. The sky receded like a scroll, rolling up, and every mountain and island was removed from its place. Then the kings of the earth, the princes, the generals, the rich, the mighty, and every slave and every free man hid in caves and among the rocks of the mountains. They called to the mountains and the rocks, "Fall on us and hide us from the face of him who sits on the throne and from the wrath of the Lamb! For the great day of their wrath has come, and who can stand?" "
Revelation 8:8-9,12: "The second angel sounded his trumpet, and something like a huge mountain, all ablaze, was thrown into the sea. A third of the sea turned into blood, a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed … The fourth angel sounded his trumpet, and a third of the sun was struck, a third of the moon, and a third of the stars, so that a third of them turned dark. A third of the day was without light, and also a third of the night."
Revelation 11:2-3: "But exclude the outer court; do not measure it, because it has been given to the Gentiles. They will trample on the holy city for 42 months. 3 And I will give power to my two witnesses: and they will prophesy for 1,260 days, clothed in sackcloth" The second angel poured out his bowl on the sea, and it turned into blood like that of a dead man, and every living thing in the sea died."
Revelation 16:3, 8-9: "The fourth angel poured out his bowl on the sun, and the sun was given power to scorch people with fire...They were seared by the intense heat and they cursed the name of God, who had control over these plagues, but they refused to repent and glorify him."
Jesus created all things and it's Him who sustains them and holds them together (Colossians 1:17). Though many have rejected Him, they often presume that the things He controls will remain constant. We predict time and location on the basis of the stars and planets. Those who follow astrology, often regulate their lives by the constellations. Heaven and earth will pass away, Jesus said. The disruptions of the heavens are but another sign of the devastation to come.
Mankind will not ignore these signs. We won't be able to. Many will be terrified, as Jesus indicated in verse 26. Still, many will not repent of their sins. They will continue to "eat, drink, and marry" (Luke 17:26-29). Life will go on as usual, despite living in terror, in continued rebellion against God. Inconceivable, but true, and we can see illustrations of this going on today. Look at the aids epidemic as an example; though many are terrified at the thought of contracting this disease, life goes on as usual in the homosexual community. The only modification that men will make in their practice is to strive to practice "safe sex," when "godly sex" would stop the disease dead in its tracks. Though we may be frightened to death by a danger, we persist in living just as we always have.
The signs that the unbelieving world will distort or deny are the same signs which the saints must heed. The signs that bring terror and fear to the unbeliever, will bring courage and hope to the saints. Jesus instructed Believers to "stand up and to lift up their heads," because their redemption was near (Luke 21:28). The reason is that these signs precede His return, and His return in great power and glory (Luke 21:27).
JERUSALEM AND THE GREAT COSMOCIDE
Read Ezekiel 38 & 39 and Psalm 83 & 84. Many believe that these chapters describe an attack upon Israel by an enemy consisting of several Middle Eastern nations along with Russia. Though all of these nations have attacked Israel at one time or another throughout history, NEVER have all these nations joined in a unified confederation against the Jews all at the same time. Certainly, never have any of these nations attacked Israel in an alliance with Russia.
That is, until now.
During the current war in which Israel is engaged, I've heard several sources state that the weaponry being used against Israel by its enemies are all Russian-made. One source stated that "281" Russian scientists and weapons specialist had been established somewhere in Iran with the purpose of manufacturing missiles.
The prophecies of Scripture indicate that, before Christ returns, Jerusalem will become the focus of international attention. With a brother-in-law commanding troops in Ramadi as I write, I must say that I have noticed a drop in the reports from Iraq and an escalation in the reports regarding the war between Israel and the confederation. Bible prophecies indicate that just before His return, Jerusalem will become the focus of the world's attention. Jesus spoke of a coming desecration of the holy place, the Temple Mount (Matthew 24:15) and that Jerusalem would be surrounded by armies and taken over by Gentiles (Luke 21:20-24). Whereas Jerusalem drew little attention during the years of Arab and Turkish control, all of a sudden the tiny nation became a major world hotbed of significance when it won its 1948 War of Independence. Now, in 21st century, many say that control of Jerusalem should be in the hands of the United Nations, or even the Vatican, hoping to bring peace to this strife-torn region. It seems to me that any thinking person should step back and ask themselves WHY this tiny region of the world seems so important to so many others throughout the world. Could it be compared to a tiny rudder controlling the direction of a huge ship? Jesus told us what would occur just before His return.
Referring to escalating troubles in the last days, Jesus said that "unless those days were shortened, no flesh would be saved" (Matthew 24:22; Mark 13:20). He said, just before His return, it would be possible to destroy all life on the planet. Before nuclear weapons, in the 1940s and 1950s, this was humanly impossible. With more and more countries now having nuclear capabilities and weapons of mass destruction (WMD's), many in the hands of demon possessed thugs and terrorists, if these terrible weapons were used in an all-out war, that would spell the end of the world as we know it. Jesus' prophecy of cosmocide is no exaggeration. This benchmark became a reality became in the middle of the 20th century for the first time in human history.
After examining Biblical prophecies in light of current events, one might strongly suggest that we really ARE living in the last days. While we cannot know the day or the hour, Bible prophecy appears to indicate that God wants us to recognize the approximate time of Christ's return (Matthew 24:32-35). Jesus told His disciples - that includes you and me - to "watch" world events so we would not be taken by surprise. The greatest concern where last days are concerned is NOT whether Christ will return today, tomorrow or at all. No, the greatest concern should be whether or not today is YOUR last day. Why not live as if we were "clocking out" tonight? What are you doing with the time you've been given and what will you do with the time you have remaining? God really DOES have a PURPOSE for all of us. HINT: It's NOT all about US.
The first recorded message that Jesus ever preached was, "Repent! For the Kingdom of God is at hand!" (Matthew 4:17). For those seeking a "Word" from the Lord, there it is, straight out of Scripture..."Repent," meaning "change your mind." Re-think your position regarding your relationship with God, the motivation of your heart, your life's purpose, the churches responsibilities, your personal role in all this.
"The Gospel of the Kingdom shall be preached to the whole world as a witness and THEN the end shall come." (Matthew 24:14) There it is... preach the Gospel of the Kingdom. That's our mission in a nutshell.
Has the world in which YOU find yourself heard the Good News today?
Briefing Paper: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Preliminary Implications on the Economy and Disease Overview
SARS Briefing Paper
Author: Peter Lytle, Managing Partner
The Business Development Group www.bdgpartners.com
Contact information: plytle@bdgpartners.com or 952-473-3831
Permission to use granted.
4/22/03
Briefing Paper: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Preliminary
Implications on the Economy and Disease Overview
The purpose of this briefing is to give the reader a current overview of SARS, a baseline of information about the disease and some economic implications to build upon. As the First World War came to an end, we entered a period of global travel; and with that travel, began the first global pandemic. By the end of the pandemic, over 20 million people lay dead. Since that time, we have experienced a variety of related diseases. Some are as dangerous, some with the potential to do as much damage: Aids, Hantavirus, avian flu, variants of CJD and CWD, West Nile, Ebola, Indian plague, smallpox, Legionaries disease and many other varied bacterial and viral infections. On an average, the world is subjected to a new biological threat from Mother Nature every 6 to 10 years. Man-made biological threats can be developed ad hoc: Anthrax and Smallpox.
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome or SARS has not received all the attention in the US media that it has in other countries perhaps due to the war. Perhaps because we are all complacent, thinking the ability to manage these diseases is commonplace. SARS has not yet been proven to be a mega disease, but it may be on the verge of becoming one. If SARS were to go unchecked in the world and mimic the problems created in China, Hong Kong or Toronto, we could see a significant impact on our economic marketplace and healthcare system.
What is SARS?
SARS is a respiratory illness believed to be caused by the coronavirus. In some cases, it is being referred to as Atypical Pneumonia because of its close resemblance to pneumonia. The criteria for SARS are: temperature of 100.5 degrees or more, one or more clinical findings of respiratory illness (i.e. cough, shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, hypoxia, or radiographic findings of either pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome), travel to an area with documented or suspected community transmission of SARS, and/or close contact within 10 days of onset of symptoms with either a person with a respiratory illness who traveled to a SARS area or a person known to be a suspect SARS case. In a limited number of cases individuals also had diarrhea.
What is the origin or SARS?
A small group of scientists believes that SARS may have come from farm animals. Bi Shengli, of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing, stated that the earliest victims in Guangdong were chefs or bird vendors in contact with chickens, ducks, pigeons and owls. This theory is yet to be proven. The current theory is that SARS is a new coronavirus; similar to the family of coronavirus that causes the common cold and mild to moderate upper-respiratory illness in humans. When viewed under a microscope, they have a halo or crown-like appearance. Some researchers think this strain of coronavirus identified may also be similar to a virus that is far more serious and found in animals where it is associated with respiratory, gastrointestinal, liver and neurological disease, but recent genetic testing has not identified this as the case. In several cases of SARS, metapneumovirs has been isolated; the role in the pathogenesis in SARS remains unclear. Scientists recently sequenced the corona virus found in numerous SARS patients and believe it is new. One of the concerning things about this virus is its ability to mutate rapidly. As one scientist state โ€œthis is a virus looking for the perfect host or transmission vehicleโ€. The coronavirus identified is currently considered the primary cause of SARS, according to a briefing by World Health Organization on April 17, 2003. Other potential viruses may still yet be identified that may interact with the disease as it progresses however.
SARS is believed to have originated in or around the Guangdong province of China in November of 2002 or before. From there it spread to a single hotel in Hong Kong, called the Metropole, then certain hospital clusters involving seriously ill patients. Guests on the 9th, 11th, & 14th, floors of the Metropole Hotel were exposed. International travelers from these floors spread the disease to another five countries; the disease is now in 26 countries. In February of 2003 it appeared in North America for the first time.
What is the incubation period for SARS?
Typically it is 2 through 10 days. The illness begins generally with an onset of fever of 100.4ยบ or more. The fever is often associated with chills and/or rigors and might be accompanied by other symptoms including headache, malaise and myalgia. After 3 through 7 days, a lower-respiratory phase begins with the onset of a dry, nonproductive cough or dyspnea. In 10% to 20% of cases the respiratory illness is severe enough to require incubation and mechanical support.
What is the mortality rate?
This is an extremely aggressive disease. In countries where it was originally established, 1 in 20 are believed to be dying. The CDC estimates the mortality rate at about 3.5%, which is similar to other respiratory diseases. Other organizations such as Health Canada have placed the death rate at 4% to 9%. Hospitals in China have experienced up to a 25% mortality rate. It is too early to tell the actual mortality rate and it will likely be different in each country.
At the present time (4/21/03), there are 3,947 cases worldwide, there have been 229 deaths and 1,1935 recoveries. Two hundred twenty eight suspected cases have been reported in the US in 35 states, with no deaths to date. Cases studies before 4/5/03 indicated 94% of the individuals had traveled within 10 days before the onset of illness to the areas listed in the CDC SARS case areas. For more information on case areas, please go to www.cdc.gov and access the SARS page.
What is the risk of exposure?
SARS appears to be spread primarily by direct contact with moisture droplets or body fluids expelled by a SARS carrier. The World Health Organization (WHO) believes, however, that other factors may be involved. Several hundred residents of a housing complex in Hong Kong (Amoy Gardens) some of which are now leaving quarantine and being tracked; may have been infected with SARS even though they did not have direct contact with a SARS carrier. Research into transmission by cockroaches is being conducted in connection with this location. Thirteen labs around the world are currently researching SARS, how it is transmitted and related questions.
It is also becoming evident, according to the CDC and other health organizations, that some individuals may be more infectious than others. An April 4th teleconference, by the CDC and WHO, referred to the possibility of super carriers (individuals that are able to spread the disease greater than others).
According to Dr. Gerberding of the CDC, in one hospital in Hanoi, 56% of the health care worker population that came in contact with a SARS patient came down with the disease. In Toronto, where the disease has had a significant impact on hospitals and health care, 180 paramedics have been quarantined in their homes, three were hospitalized with symptoms after potential exposure to SARS infected individuals.
There appears to be a dramatic difference in the mortality of the disease depending on when it is detected. The US has experienced no deaths and a number of recoveries based on aggressive disease management, while Mainland China has experienced 1,457 reported cases and 65 deaths as of April 16, 2003. Actual numbers will turn out to be much higher. It appears that the government of China has under reported suspected case of SARS to prevent panic and economic damage to their industrial sector.
Dr Gerberding of the CDC believes this is a significant and serious threat to world health and one that needs immediate and vigilant attention. โ€œWe recognize this as an epidemic that's evolving differently.โ€ In transcripts from the CDC, Dr. Gerberding and Dr James Hughes, of the National Center for Infectious Diseases, have stated their concern about SARS. โ€œThe potential for infecting large numbers of people is very great.โ€ The WHO said outbreaks in most parts of the world are currently under control but still spreading in China and Hong Kong. Other health organizations remain highly cautious and suggest this virus could still break away.
At the present time, many individuals that have been exposed to SARS have recovered or are in recovery. Early medical attention is critical. If you believe you have SARS you should contact local health authorities immediately and try to limit contact with other individuals if possible until you have been instructed on the best course of action.
Does the coronavirus live outside of the human body?
The virus appears to live about 3 hours outside the human body. Similar viruses have the capacity to live from 1 hour to 6 days outside the body. There are some very limited concerns that if dried, it may become airborne and still remain potent or maybe hosted by animals or in sewage or related environments. Research on other transmission methods is ongoing. Most research to this date indicates a human host is still the primary methods for transmission and the virus does not live well outside of a host. A great deal of attention is being given to โ€œAirport transmissionโ€. Air passengers may be at some risk. Airplanes do filter air and only passengers in close contact to a SARS carriers or having touched perhaps a lavatory item etc. are believed to be at significant risk. The question is still being studied however and the answers may be months away. At which point a SARS carrier is infectious and can pass the disease on is still under debate.
Are there any tests developed to detect SARS?
SARS identification testing is under development. Currently a PCR test is being evaluated. Dr James Hughes has noted two CDC tests that look promising; one is an indirect fluorescent antibody test and the other is an Allose test. Both tests require the disease to have some time to establish itself in the human body.
Is there any known treatment for SARS?
At this time there is no known treatment for SARS; anti-viral drugs, antibiotics and steroids alone have not responded well. An article in the Financial Times on April 2, 2003 indicated that Hong Kong government health officials indicated some success with a treatment of cocktails of anti-viral drugs and steroids to modulate the extreme response by the patient's immune system. Ahang Wenkang, health minister for China believes they have found a combination of Western and Chinese medicine that works but no details are provided. There are vaccines used in animals to manage coronavirus so there may be an opportunity to expand this into human subjects in the future. No specific drugs to date including Ribavirin have demonstrated effectiveness in control of the disease. Mechanical ventilators are being used with acute patients. One concern facing many countries including the US is the lack of this equipment in the event of a major outbreak of SARS. It is estimate the US has fewer than 20,000 of these units available and during the peak of the Flu season most are in use, the question remains which patients would get the access to this equipment. With the genetic code now available for the SARS coronavirus a vaccine can be developed. This is a process that can take years, however and there is a lack of production capabilities for vaccines in the US at the present time.
Prevention of the disease is based on keeping away from direct contact with potentially infected individuals. Recommendations are to practice basic hygiene, washing hands frequently, and avoid areas where the disease is spreading. The use of surgical masks is having limited impact unless the mask is worn by an infected individual to reduce the droplets spread by the nose or mouth. Masks that are sealed and rated N-95, used in conjunction with eye protection and rubber gloves are suggested for individuals in close contact with infected individuals. N-95 masks are currently on back order many months by producers and may not be available should a large outbreak occur in the US or Europe. Most masks have a limited period of value (24 hours or less) once used. Improper use of the mask may also not prevent the disease from coming in contact with the mouth or nose. It is believed that a variety of disinfectants are successful at destroying the virus; chlorine-based disinfectants are listed in a number of health organization's information articles. There is, however, no disinfectant that is currently registered or approved for SARS by any government organization at this time.
Should I travel overseas?
The CDC and WHO have travel advisories out for much of Asia. Check the CDC website. Toronto is also being noted as a travel caution area. In short, if you don't need to travel at this time, don't. Video conferencing is up 50% for Asia. According to the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy, individuals that are in the US who have not traveled to an infected area have very little risk of becoming infected with SARS. This suggests that staying home may mean staying safe. In some areas of the US Asian and their business are being avoided. There is no indication that Asians in the US are any more likely to have SARS than anyone who has traveled anywhere would. In fact the Asian community may have a higher awareness of the disease than other cultural groups.
Travel advisories are currently recommending restricted travel to: Mainland China (especially the Guangdong province), Vietnam (primarily Hanoi), Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Shanix and some organizations have placed a watch on Toronto, Canada. If a traveler acquires SARS in some of these countries they may not be admitted to hospitals but instead be directed to isolation clinics if they exist. Do not expect to find housing in hotels during the course of the disease. Most airlines will not allow SARS patient's reservations until the disease is proven to be gone and the patient fully recovered. Some countries are no longer allowing air passengers from case countries to disembark, and it is possible that a traveler could find himself or herself stranded for weeks or months if caught in an epidemic location.
Depending on the time line for this disease (3 to 10 years), the original countries where the disease has run its course may become safer to visit or do business in than countries where the disease has yet to penetrate 70% of the population, assuming a vaccine has hot been found. This is called the Jack-in โ€"the-box theory. After the outbreak of food poisoning at Jack in the Box, it cleaned up its act and became one of America's safest eating establishments.
Could SARS be similar to other respiratory or flu-like diseases?
Nobody knows. In the 1998 โ€" 99 flu season there were, according to the CDC, 20,000 flu associated deaths nationwide with 80 million doses of vaccine given to the public. The vaccine was between 70%-80% effective in preventing the flu among healthy adults. This could suggest that a similar disease, for which no vaccine exists, could have a devastating effect on any population that is not prepared. If SARS turns out to be an airborne disease, it will likely be considered more aggressive and could mimic the flu. Direct-contact diseases tend to spread slower allowing for health controls. The use of quarantine procedures may help control SARS. Most countries are utilizing quarantine procedures with SARS suspects but have not with used it with the flu, suggesting a lower risk rate for healthy individuals in developed countries.
Economic Impact of SARS
SARS currently has the greatest economic impact on Asian countries and businesses closely related to those countries. Among the industries currently being affected: Airlines, Asian and some Canadian (Toronto) convention and tourist business and local retail business, travel-related business and production of materials in China. By example, when Qantas Airlines issued the region's first pneumonia-related profit warning two weeks ago, Merrill Lynch cut their estimates on earning by 19%. Cathay Pacific, which is based in Hong Kong, saw its shares drop by 18% and Singapore Airlines dropped by 14% as a result of SARS concerns by investors. KLM, the Dutch Airline, said that it feared the rapid spread of SARS was having a greater impact on the airline industry than the war in Iraq according to a report in the April 3rd edition of the Financial Times. As of April 16, 2003 some of the biggest Asian airlines said they had travel drop offs of up to 70% on flights to Hong Kong. Goldman Sachs analysis, Noboru Nakajima, believes that the disease will be significant in affecting all travel. Concerns by the cruise line industry of a potential SARS outbreak, has also created a major debate on how to manage the problem if it occurs and how to screen customers to reduce the threat.
Hong Kong is not a large producer of material goods anymore; on a global basis 70% of its revenues are generated by services. Services are driven by manpower. SARS is a tremendous threat to any Hong Kong based business. Already most schools are closed. Parents are staying home and away from restaurants, retail locations, cinema, and entertainment complexes. The HSBC Bank and other banks have shut down locations and canceled meeting and overseas travel. A number of embassies have closed and families sent home. Should SARS reach the US or Europe as it has in Asia, panic and over reaction will likely appear. With the war coming to an end CNN, Fox and other news media may look at SARS as the next big news item and set off a similar panic to that created Hong Kong.
In an effort to contain the damage done to its travel industry, China claims the disease is nearing control. The WHO, on the other hand, has now listed all of Mainland China under a travel advisory. Most health organizations believe that China has lost control of the virus. Manufacturing facilities in the Guangdong province are experiencing shortages of employees as non-dormitory workers stay home or are subject to quarantine. Concern by overseas buyers, that production will lag or their customers may reject goods produced in the Guangdong province, is creating a complex series of global discussion on finding supplemental suppliers before the next holiday season. China has become the supplier to the world in a variety of consumer goods and any unchecked spread of SARS in China will impact companies from Nike to Wal-Mart. China with its large electronics industry could also be subject to considerable damage. Wal-Mart has already asked its Asian travelers from case countries to go into a self-quarantine for 10 days before returning to work. Products shipped from China are considered safe due to the time it takes for them to reach US shore and should not be impacted directly according to the WHO. The workers that produce these products and those companies that have offices in China are at the greatest risk according to a recent article in Business Week.
If SARS spreads in the Western countries, the cost of health care could rise significantly. SARS is a very intensive disease to manage because it requires isolation of the patient; health care costs could increase 2 to 3 fold with a significant outbreak. The loss of workers for up to 30 to 60 days will also impact the productivity of countries and companies. Retail sales could fall significantly as they have in Hong Kong where it was reported by the Hong Kong Retail Management Association and Financial Times that retail sales are down by 50% since the outbreak of SARS with a potential 5% to 10% decline in property value estimated by Merrill Lynch
The Department of Defense is currently supplying support to the CDC in identification of the virus and in identification for means of infection. SARS could have a dire impact on our defense program and the war in Iraq. If troops in Korea became infected, we would see further destabilization of the region. The cost to the government for increased defense spending to make up for infected troops could have a longer-term impact on the recession.
At the present time there is no reason to believe that SARS is related to terrorism, so the positive side is less fear in the population. SARS is too complex and uncontrolled to use as a terrorist weapon, if it did come from a lab it would be more likely to have been the result of a lab accident where the virus was being use to create a vaccine. SARS may have more impact in some countries than others. Companies that purchase items from overseas or are related to the overseas travel industry (primarily Asia) could see longer-term financial issues. Companies in some sectors of the health care industry might see increases in revenue especially if they are in manufacturing of products like surgical masks, etc. Grants for funding research into SARS could benefit Universities and some pharmaceutical firms. SARS could help Internet commerce; catalog companies and delivery companies and digital movies grow as customer stay away from the crowds.
Companies, like Disney, could be hurt as consumers stay away from crowds this summer. Travel to Los Angeles and/or Hawaii could be down as visitors shy away from areas where there are large numbers of Asian travelers. If the disease is tracked to certain bird populations, breeders of these birds may be hurt by the additional cost of disinfecting or loss of consumer confidence in purchasing these products due to fear factors. The disease, at this time, is unlikely to have a significant impact outside of China and some Asian countries as long as the WHO is able to maintain the outbreak, but it should be monitored. Companies that are already in difficult shape and somehow related to any key areas mentioned, should be monitored closely as their survival may be directly related to the events of SARS management by world health organizations over the next several years. Events change quickly with biological diseases. Data is often conflicted. You are advised to watch a site like Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (www.cidrap.umn.edu/) or other contacts listed below for frequent updates on this disease.
References & Sources*:
Hong Kong Dept of Health www.info.gov.hk/dh/ap.htm
Singapore Ministry of Health http://app.moh.gov.sg/
Health Canada www.hc-sc.gc.ca/english/protection/warnings/sars/index.html
Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy www.cidrap.umn.edu/
Center for Disease Control & Prevention www.cdc.gov/ or www.cdc.gov/ncidod/SARS/
World Health Organization www.who.int/en/
Morbidity and Mortality Weekly http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr /
Communicable Disease Surveillance & Response www.who.int/csr/en/
Financial Times www.ft.com
Business Week, Time, Newsweek
*Some site addresses are subject to periodic change.
Nike and Wal-Mart, Jack in the Box are protected trademarks of Nike Corporations, Wal-Mart Corporation, Jack in the Box, Corp.
Trademarks apply to all other names and logos Information in this briefing may be subject to change. Data in various sources may be conflicting. Decision concerning SARS or its impact should not be made on this briefing but should come from the reader's own research
Author: Peter Lytle, Managing Partner
The Business Development Group www.bdgpartners.com
Contact information: plytle@bdgpartners.com or 952-473-3831
Permission to use granted.
4/22/03
Briefing Paper: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) Preliminary
Implications on the Economy and Disease Overview
The purpose of this briefing is to give the reader a current overview of SARS, a baseline of information about the disease and some economic implications to build upon. As the First World War came to an end, we entered a period of global travel; and with that travel, began the first global pandemic. By the end of the pandemic, over 20 million people lay dead. Since that time, we have experienced a variety of related diseases. Some are as dangerous, some with the potential to do as much damage: Aids, Hantavirus, avian flu, variants of CJD and CWD, West Nile, Ebola, Indian plague, smallpox, Legionaries disease and many other varied bacterial and viral infections. On an average, the world is subjected to a new biological threat from Mother Nature every 6 to 10 years. Man-made biological threats can be developed ad hoc: Anthrax and Smallpox.
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome or SARS has not received all the attention in the US media that it has in other countries perhaps due to the war. Perhaps because we are all complacent, thinking the ability to manage these diseases is commonplace. SARS has not yet been proven to be a mega disease, but it may be on the verge of becoming one. If SARS were to go unchecked in the world and mimic the problems created in China, Hong Kong or Toronto, we could see a significant impact on our economic marketplace and healthcare system.
What is SARS?
SARS is a respiratory illness believed to be caused by the coronavirus. In some cases, it is being referred to as Atypical Pneumonia because of its close resemblance to pneumonia. The criteria for SARS are: temperature of 100.5 degrees or more, one or more clinical findings of respiratory illness (i.e. cough, shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, hypoxia, or radiographic findings of either pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome), travel to an area with documented or suspected community transmission of SARS, and/or close contact within 10 days of onset of symptoms with either a person with a respiratory illness who traveled to a SARS area or a person known to be a suspect SARS case. In a limited number of cases individuals also had diarrhea.
What is the origin or SARS?
A small group of scientists believes that SARS may have come from farm animals. Bi Shengli, of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing, stated that the earliest victims in Guangdong were chefs or bird vendors in contact with chickens, ducks, pigeons and owls. This theory is yet to be proven. The current theory is that SARS is a new coronavirus; similar to the family of coronavirus that causes the common cold and mild to moderate upper-respiratory illness in humans. When viewed under a microscope, they have a halo or crown-like appearance. Some researchers think this strain of coronavirus identified may also be similar to a virus that is far more serious and found in animals where it is associated with respiratory, gastrointestinal, liver and neurological disease, but recent genetic testing has not identified this as the case. In several cases of SARS, metapneumovirs has been isolated; the role in the pathogenesis in SARS remains unclear. Scientists recently sequenced the corona virus found in numerous SARS patients and believe it is new. One of the concerning things about this virus is its ability to mutate rapidly. As one scientist state โ€œthis is a virus looking for the perfect host or transmission vehicleโ€. The coronavirus identified is currently considered the primary cause of SARS, according to a briefing by World Health Organization on April 17, 2003. Other potential viruses may still yet be identified that may interact with the disease as it progresses however.
SARS is believed to have originated in or around the Guangdong province of China in November of 2002 or before. From there it spread to a single hotel in Hong Kong, called the Metropole, then certain hospital clusters involving seriously ill patients. Guests on the 9th, 11th, & 14th, floors of the Metropole Hotel were exposed. International travelers from these floors spread the disease to another five countries; the disease is now in 26 countries. In February of 2003 it appeared in North America for the first time.
What is the incubation period for SARS?
Typically it is 2 through 10 days. The illness begins generally with an onset of fever of 100.4ยบ or more. The fever is often associated with chills and/or rigors and might be accompanied by other symptoms including headache, malaise and myalgia. After 3 through 7 days, a lower-respiratory phase begins with the onset of a dry, nonproductive cough or dyspnea. In 10% to 20% of cases the respiratory illness is severe enough to require incubation and mechanical support.
What is the mortality rate?
This is an extremely aggressive disease. In countries where it was originally established, 1 in 20 are believed to be dying. The CDC estimates the mortality rate at about 3.5%, which is similar to other respiratory diseases. Other organizations such as Health Canada have placed the death rate at 4% to 9%. Hospitals in China have experienced up to a 25% mortality rate. It is too early to tell the actual mortality rate and it will likely be different in each country.
At the present time (4/21/03), there are 3,947 cases worldwide, there have been 229 deaths and 1,1935 recoveries. Two hundred twenty eight suspected cases have been reported in the US in 35 states, with no deaths to date. Cases studies before 4/5/03 indicated 94% of the individuals had traveled within 10 days before the onset of illness to the areas listed in the CDC SARS case areas. For more information on case areas, please go to www.cdc.gov and access the SARS page.
What is the risk of exposure?
SARS appears to be spread primarily by direct contact with moisture droplets or body fluids expelled by a SARS carrier. The World Health Organization (WHO) believes, however, that other factors may be involved. Several hundred residents of a housing complex in Hong Kong (Amoy Gardens) some of which are now leaving quarantine and being tracked; may have been infected with SARS even though they did not have direct contact with a SARS carrier. Research into transmission by cockroaches is being conducted in connection with this location. Thirteen labs around the world are currently researching SARS, how it is transmitted and related questions.
It is also becoming evident, according to the CDC and other health organizations, that some individuals may be more infectious than others. An April 4th teleconference, by the CDC and WHO, referred to the possibility of super carriers (individuals that are able to spread the disease greater than others).
According to Dr. Gerberding of the CDC, in one hospital in Hanoi, 56% of the health care worker population that came in contact with a SARS patient came down with the disease. In Toronto, where the disease has had a significant impact on hospitals and health care, 180 paramedics have been quarantined in their homes, three were hospitalized with symptoms after potential exposure to SARS infected individuals.
There appears to be a dramatic difference in the mortality of the disease depending on when it is detected. The US has experienced no deaths and a number of recoveries based on aggressive disease management, while Mainland China has experienced 1,457 reported cases and 65 deaths as of April 16, 2003. Actual numbers will turn out to be much higher. It appears that the government of China has under reported suspected case of SARS to prevent panic and economic damage to their industrial sector.
Dr Gerberding of the CDC believes this is a significant and serious threat to world health and one that needs immediate and vigilant attention. โ€œWe recognize this as an epidemic that's evolving differently.โ€ In transcripts from the CDC, Dr. Gerberding and Dr James Hughes, of the National Center for Infectious Diseases, have stated their concern about SARS. โ€œThe potential for infecting large numbers of people is very great.โ€ The WHO said outbreaks in most parts of the world are currently under control but still spreading in China and Hong Kong. Other health organizations remain highly cautious and suggest this virus could still break away.
At the present time, many individuals that have been exposed to SARS have recovered or are in recovery. Early medical attention is critical. If you believe you have SARS you should contact local health authorities immediately and try to limit contact with other individuals if possible until you have been instructed on the best course of action.
Does the coronavirus live outside of the human body?
The virus appears to live about 3 hours outside the human body. Similar viruses have the capacity to live from 1 hour to 6 days outside the body. There are some very limited concerns that if dried, it may become airborne and still remain potent or maybe hosted by animals or in sewage or related environments. Research on other transmission methods is ongoing. Most research to this date indicates a human host is still the primary methods for transmission and the virus does not live well outside of a host. A great deal of attention is being given to โ€œAirport transmissionโ€. Air passengers may be at some risk. Airplanes do filter air and only passengers in close contact to a SARS carriers or having touched perhaps a lavatory item etc. are believed to be at significant risk. The question is still being studied however and the answers may be months away. At which point a SARS carrier is infectious and can pass the disease on is still under debate.
Are there any tests developed to detect SARS?
SARS identification testing is under development. Currently a PCR test is being evaluated. Dr James Hughes has noted two CDC tests that look promising; one is an indirect fluorescent antibody test and the other is an Allose test. Both tests require the disease to have some time to establish itself in the human body.
Is there any known treatment for SARS?
At this time there is no known treatment for SARS; anti-viral drugs, antibiotics and steroids alone have not responded well. An article in the Financial Times on April 2, 2003 indicated that Hong Kong government health officials indicated some success with a treatment of cocktails of anti-viral drugs and steroids to modulate the extreme response by the patient's immune system. Ahang Wenkang, health minister for China believes they have found a combination of Western and Chinese medicine that works but no details are provided. There are vaccines used in animals to manage coronavirus so there may be an opportunity to expand this into human subjects in the future. No specific drugs to date including Ribavirin have demonstrated effectiveness in control of the disease. Mechanical ventilators are being used with acute patients. One concern facing many countries including the US is the lack of this equipment in the event of a major outbreak of SARS. It is estimate the US has fewer than 20,000 of these units available and during the peak of the Flu season most are in use, the question remains which patients would get the access to this equipment. With the genetic code now available for the SARS coronavirus a vaccine can be developed. This is a process that can take years, however and there is a lack of production capabilities for vaccines in the US at the present time.
Prevention of the disease is based on keeping away from direct contact with potentially infected individuals. Recommendations are to practice basic hygiene, washing hands frequently, and avoid areas where the disease is spreading. The use of surgical masks is having limited impact unless the mask is worn by an infected individual to reduce the droplets spread by the nose or mouth. Masks that are sealed and rated N-95, used in conjunction with eye protection and rubber gloves are suggested for individuals in close contact with infected individuals. N-95 masks are currently on back order many months by producers and may not be available should a large outbreak occur in the US or Europe. Most masks have a limited period of value (24 hours or less) once used. Improper use of the mask may also not prevent the disease from coming in contact with the mouth or nose. It is believed that a variety of disinfectants are successful at destroying the virus; chlorine-based disinfectants are listed in a number of health organization's information articles. There is, however, no disinfectant that is currently registered or approved for SARS by any government organization at this time.
Should I travel overseas?
The CDC and WHO have travel advisories out for much of Asia. Check the CDC website. Toronto is also being noted as a travel caution area. In short, if you don't need to travel at this time, don't. Video conferencing is up 50% for Asia. According to the Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy, individuals that are in the US who have not traveled to an infected area have very little risk of becoming infected with SARS. This suggests that staying home may mean staying safe. In some areas of the US Asian and their business are being avoided. There is no indication that Asians in the US are any more likely to have SARS than anyone who has traveled anywhere would. In fact the Asian community may have a higher awareness of the disease than other cultural groups.
Travel advisories are currently recommending restricted travel to: Mainland China (especially the Guangdong province), Vietnam (primarily Hanoi), Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Shanix and some organizations have placed a watch on Toronto, Canada. If a traveler acquires SARS in some of these countries they may not be admitted to hospitals but instead be directed to isolation clinics if they exist. Do not expect to find housing in hotels during the course of the disease. Most airlines will not allow SARS patient's reservations until the disease is proven to be gone and the patient fully recovered. Some countries are no longer allowing air passengers from case countries to disembark, and it is possible that a traveler could find himself or herself stranded for weeks or months if caught in an epidemic location.
Depending on the time line for this disease (3 to 10 years), the original countries where the disease has run its course may become safer to visit or do business in than countries where the disease has yet to penetrate 70% of the population, assuming a vaccine has hot been found. This is called the Jack-in โ€"the-box theory. After the outbreak of food poisoning at Jack in the Box, it cleaned up its act and became one of America's safest eating establishments.
Could SARS be similar to other respiratory or flu-like diseases?
Nobody knows. In the 1998 โ€" 99 flu season there were, according to the CDC, 20,000 flu associated deaths nationwide with 80 million doses of vaccine given to the public. The vaccine was between 70%-80% effective in preventing the flu among healthy adults. This could suggest that a similar disease, for which no vaccine exists, could have a devastating effect on any population that is not prepared. If SARS turns out to be an airborne disease, it will likely be considered more aggressive and could mimic the flu. Direct-contact diseases tend to spread slower allowing for health controls. The use of quarantine procedures may help control SARS. Most countries are utilizing quarantine procedures with SARS suspects but have not with used it with the flu, suggesting a lower risk rate for healthy individuals in developed countries.
Economic Impact of SARS
SARS currently has the greatest economic impact on Asian countries and businesses closely related to those countries. Among the industries currently being affected: Airlines, Asian and some Canadian (Toronto) convention and tourist business and local retail business, travel-related business and production of materials in China. By example, when Qantas Airlines issued the region's first pneumonia-related profit warning two weeks ago, Merrill Lynch cut their estimates on earning by 19%. Cathay Pacific, which is based in Hong Kong, saw its shares drop by 18% and Singapore Airlines dropped by 14% as a result of SARS concerns by investors. KLM, the Dutch Airline, said that it feared the rapid spread of SARS was having a greater impact on the airline industry than the war in Iraq according to a report in the April 3rd edition of the Financial Times. As of April 16, 2003 some of the biggest Asian airlines said they had travel drop offs of up to 70% on flights to Hong Kong. Goldman Sachs analysis, Noboru Nakajima, believes that the disease will be significant in affecting all travel. Concerns by the cruise line industry of a potential SARS outbreak, has also created a major debate on how to manage the problem if it occurs and how to screen customers to reduce the threat.
Hong Kong is not a large producer of material goods anymore; on a global basis 70% of its revenues are generated by services. Services are driven by manpower. SARS is a tremendous threat to any Hong Kong based business. Already most schools are closed. Parents are staying home and away from restaurants, retail locations, cinema, and entertainment complexes. The HSBC Bank and other banks have shut down locations and canceled meeting and overseas travel. A number of embassies have closed and families sent home. Should SARS reach the US or Europe as it has in Asia, panic and over reaction will likely appear. With the war coming to an end CNN, Fox and other news media may look at SARS as the next big news item and set off a similar panic to that created Hong Kong.
In an effort to contain the damage done to its travel industry, China claims the disease is nearing control. The WHO, on the other hand, has now listed all of Mainland China under a travel advisory. Most health organizations believe that China has lost control of the virus. Manufacturing facilities in the Guangdong province are experiencing shortages of employees as non-dormitory workers stay home or are subject to quarantine. Concern by overseas buyers, that production will lag or their customers may reject goods produced in the Guangdong province, is creating a complex series of global discussion on finding supplemental suppliers before the next holiday season. China has become the supplier to the world in a variety of consumer goods and any unchecked spread of SARS in China will impact companies from Nike to Wal-Mart. China with its large electronics industry could also be subject to considerable damage. Wal-Mart has already asked its Asian travelers from case countries to go into a self-quarantine for 10 days before returning to work. Products shipped from China are considered safe due to the time it takes for them to reach US shore and should not be impacted directly according to the WHO. The workers that produce these products and those companies that have offices in China are at the greatest risk according to a recent article in Business Week.
If SARS spreads in the Western countries, the cost of health care could rise significantly. SARS is a very intensive disease to manage because it requires isolation of the patient; health care costs could increase 2 to 3 fold with a significant outbreak. The loss of workers for up to 30 to 60 days will also impact the productivity of countries and companies. Retail sales could fall significantly as they have in Hong Kong where it was reported by the Hong Kong Retail Management Association and Financial Times that retail sales are down by 50% since the outbreak of SARS with a potential 5% to 10% decline in property value estimated by Merrill Lynch
The Department of Defense is currently supplying support to the CDC in identification of the virus and in identification for means of infection. SARS could have a dire impact on our defense program and the war in Iraq. If troops in Korea became infected, we would see further destabilization of the region. The cost to the government for increased defense spending to make up for infected troops could have a longer-term impact on the recession.
At the present time there is no reason to believe that SARS is related to terrorism, so the positive side is less fear in the population. SARS is too complex and uncontrolled to use as a terrorist weapon, if it did come from a lab it would be more likely to have been the result of a lab accident where the virus was being use to create a vaccine. SARS may have more impact in some countries than others. Companies that purchase items from overseas or are related to the overseas travel industry (primarily Asia) could see longer-term financial issues. Companies in some sectors of the health care industry might see increases in revenue especially if they are in manufacturing of products like surgical masks, etc. Grants for funding research into SARS could benefit Universities and some pharmaceutical firms. SARS could help Internet commerce; catalog companies and delivery companies and digital movies grow as customer stay away from the crowds.
Companies, like Disney, could be hurt as consumers stay away from crowds this summer. Travel to Los Angeles and/or Hawaii could be down as visitors shy away from areas where there are large numbers of Asian travelers. If the disease is tracked to certain bird populations, breeders of these birds may be hurt by the additional cost of disinfecting or loss of consumer confidence in purchasing these products due to fear factors. The disease, at this time, is unlikely to have a significant impact outside of China and some Asian countries as long as the WHO is able to maintain the outbreak, but it should be monitored. Companies that are already in difficult shape and somehow related to any key areas mentioned, should be monitored closely as their survival may be directly related to the events of SARS management by world health organizations over the next several years. Events change quickly with biological diseases. Data is often conflicted. You are advised to watch a site like Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (www.cidrap.umn.edu/) or other contacts listed below for frequent updates on this disease.
References & Sources*:
Hong Kong Dept of Health www.info.gov.hk/dh/ap.htm
Singapore Ministry of Health http://app.moh.gov.sg/
Health Canada www.hc-sc.gc.ca/english/protection/warnings/sars/index.html
Center for Infectious Disease Research & Policy www.cidrap.umn.edu/
Center for Disease Control & Prevention www.cdc.gov/ or www.cdc.gov/ncidod/SARS/
World Health Organization www.who.int/en/
Morbidity and Mortality Weekly http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr /
Communicable Disease Surveillance & Response www.who.int/csr/en/
Financial Times www.ft.com
Business Week, Time, Newsweek
*Some site addresses are subject to periodic change.
Nike and Wal-Mart, Jack in the Box are protected trademarks of Nike Corporations, Wal-Mart Corporation, Jack in the Box, Corp.
Trademarks apply to all other names and logos Information in this briefing may be subject to change. Data in various sources may be conflicting. Decision concerning SARS or its impact should not be made on this briefing but should come from the reader's own research
Know More About Bangalore - The South Indian City
About Bangalore
Banglore lies in the state of Karnatka. This hi-tech city is known as the IT Capital of India. The city is also called as Bengaluru, it spreads over an area of 700 sq km. The various facets of the city can be only discovered by paying a visit to it. It is also adored with some striking gardens and is therefore referred as City of Garden.
Take a trip to Bangalore This city can be painlessly reached form any part of the country. Different modes of transportation like rail, road or air is well developed and can be used to reach this breathtaking city. It has well constructed rail and road network which connects with different parts the country. Some major railway stations of the city are City Railway Station, Yeswanthpur Railway Station, and Cantonment Railway Station. Certain trains like Rajdhani Express connect Bengaluru to New Delhi. The city is well linked with other major cities of India.
Bangalore Tour Destinations Banglore is a city flooded with the appealing sights. These are some excellent places for visit.
Vidhan Soudha: The remarkable granite structure is the first attraction for every visitor. It was constructed by Sri K Hanumanthiya the former Chief Minister of previous Mysore state.
Cubbon Park: Is considered to be the most relaxing place in this city which is full of activity. It is also known as the Lung of the Garden City.
The Palace of Tipu Sultan: This splendid structure is the most visited place and is considered to be the favorite destination of the visitors. This residential palace of Tipu Sultan is mainly made in wood. It holds the remarkable place with eternal attraction.
Lal Bagh: Is a garden which was laid by Hyder Ali and Tipu Sultan. This is one of the well thought of and an idealistic gardens in India.
The Iskcon Temple: This well designed temple is an ideal combination of contemporary technology and spirituality of India. It gives the enduring experience of life.
Mukti Naga temple: This temple is 16 feet long and has world's largest Naaga statue. Bangalore Education
Bangalore is considered to be the hub of education. It is famous for reputed educational institutions and is recognized for imparting education in India..
Accommodation Facility in Bangalore All type of accommodation is available here depending on the affordability of the travelers. If you want to avail a Five Star stay Hotels like ITC Windsor Sheraton, Hotel Leela Palace Kempinski, Hotel Le Meridien, Hotel Taj Residency, Hotel Park, Hotel The Oberoi, Hotel Taj Westend, Hotel The Lalit Ashok are some of the names in the list of elite hotels. If one wishes to reduce the expenses as far as stay is concern then you can go in for Hotel Bangalore International, Hotel Comfort Inn Infantry Court, Hotel Nalapad Residency, Hotel A J International.
Take a trip to Bangalore This city can be painlessly reached form any part of the country. Different modes of transportation like rail, road or air is well developed and can be used to reach this breathtaking city. It has well constructed rail and road network which connects with different parts the country. Some major railway stations of the city are City Railway Station, Yeswanthpur Railway Station, and Cantonment Railway Station. Certain trains like Rajdhani Express connect Bengaluru to New Delhi. The city is well linked with other major cities of India.
Bangalore Tour Destinations Banglore is a city flooded with the appealing sights. These are some excellent places for visit.
Vidhan Soudha: The remarkable granite structure is the first attraction for every visitor. It was constructed by Sri K Hanumanthiya the former Chief Minister of previous Mysore state.
Cubbon Park: Is considered to be the most relaxing place in this city which is full of activity. It is also known as the Lung of the Garden City.
The Palace of Tipu Sultan: This splendid structure is the most visited place and is considered to be the favorite destination of the visitors. This residential palace of Tipu Sultan is mainly made in wood. It holds the remarkable place with eternal attraction.
Lal Bagh: Is a garden which was laid by Hyder Ali and Tipu Sultan. This is one of the well thought of and an idealistic gardens in India.
The Iskcon Temple: This well designed temple is an ideal combination of contemporary technology and spirituality of India. It gives the enduring experience of life.
Mukti Naga temple: This temple is 16 feet long and has world's largest Naaga statue. Bangalore Education
Bangalore is considered to be the hub of education. It is famous for reputed educational institutions and is recognized for imparting education in India..
Accommodation Facility in Bangalore All type of accommodation is available here depending on the affordability of the travelers. If you want to avail a Five Star stay Hotels like ITC Windsor Sheraton, Hotel Leela Palace Kempinski, Hotel Le Meridien, Hotel Taj Residency, Hotel Park, Hotel The Oberoi, Hotel Taj Westend, Hotel The Lalit Ashok are some of the names in the list of elite hotels. If one wishes to reduce the expenses as far as stay is concern then you can go in for Hotel Bangalore International, Hotel Comfort Inn Infantry Court, Hotel Nalapad Residency, Hotel A J International.
Author is an associate editor for Air Travel India. Get all possible information about Flights in India and Tourism in India. We also provide information about online hotel reservation, Holiday Packages India Travel in India.
Tips For Safe Honeymooning Abroad
After reviewing international honeymoon packages online, you can begin planning your romantic, once-in-a-lifetime adventure as man and wife. Most countries, states and cities will gladly send you free information. Most likely your chosen destination will have their own website to give you details about weather, traffic, language, money, sites of interest, shopping and lodging.
These are some safety precautions that will give peace of mind to overseas travel:
ท Read the Public Announcements, regarding travel warnings, on the U.S. State Department's website at www.state.gov.
ท Make 2 copies of your passport identification page in case it is lost or stolen. Leave one copy at home with relatives and carry the other in a separate place from your passport.
ท Familiarize yourself with local customs and laws of the countries to which you are traveling.
ท Leave a copy of your itinerary, including hotel names, addresses, and phone numbers with family so that you can be contacted in case of an emergency.
ท Carry as little currency as possible. Instead use travelers checks, ATM cards and credit cards for your spending needs.
ท Invest in a money belt that sits on your waist under your clothes. Don't tempt purse snatchers or pickpockets—keep your cash well concealed at all times.
ท Some countries require an international driver's license or permit. An American driver's license is valid in most of Europe. Check with your local Department of Motor Vehicles.
ท To avoid being a target of crime, try not to wear expensive jewelry, conspicuous clothing, or carry excessive amounts of money.
ท If you get into trouble, or need more information about the area, contact the nearest U.S. embassy upon arrival.
ท When choosing a hotel, make safety, not price or location your main priority.
These are some safety precautions that will give peace of mind to overseas travel:
ท Read the Public Announcements, regarding travel warnings, on the U.S. State Department's website at www.state.gov.
ท Make 2 copies of your passport identification page in case it is lost or stolen. Leave one copy at home with relatives and carry the other in a separate place from your passport.
ท Familiarize yourself with local customs and laws of the countries to which you are traveling.
ท Leave a copy of your itinerary, including hotel names, addresses, and phone numbers with family so that you can be contacted in case of an emergency.
ท Carry as little currency as possible. Instead use travelers checks, ATM cards and credit cards for your spending needs.
ท Invest in a money belt that sits on your waist under your clothes. Don't tempt purse snatchers or pickpockets—keep your cash well concealed at all times.
ท Some countries require an international driver's license or permit. An American driver's license is valid in most of Europe. Check with your local Department of Motor Vehicles.
ท To avoid being a target of crime, try not to wear expensive jewelry, conspicuous clothing, or carry excessive amounts of money.
ท If you get into trouble, or need more information about the area, contact the nearest U.S. embassy upon arrival.
ท When choosing a hotel, make safety, not price or location your main priority.
India Air Traffic Issues to Come
As India increases its economic growth the population is taking to the air in travel and more and more are flying. Commercial Aviation traffic has increased ten fold in te last five years and is expected to do so again. India will need to set up the latest in air traffic control to handle the crowed skies. Additionally India's private aircraft markets are increasing too along with a brand new general aviation manufacturing sector.
Many of India's smaller airports are dirt strips and in need of upgrade. There are major infrastructure projects needed to help these airports. Meanwhile aviation experts warn of air-traffic snarls and eminent safety issues. There are 100 civil airports in India and twelve are international airports. Meanwhile India's airline passenger traffic is expected to exceed 50 million in less than five years and that is at the current growth rates. One industry insider stated in a major Indian newspaper; ''We won't be able to handle all passenger traffic in coming years as is being envisaged now."
One consulting firm determined that it would take over 20 billion in capital investment to bring the airports into normal safety compliance of other countries in the next decade, some think much more as things progress. Thirty Billion in new airline aircraft have already been ordered from Boeing and Airbus and more are expected in the next two-years. Some industry analysts believe the number of new jets ordered of 490 is less than a third of what will be needed. This of course is great news for Boeing and Airbus.
India is also well located for the international traveler as a hub city to the Middle East, Europe and Asia as it sits along most direct routes and perfect for the World's traveling business crowds. But can the airports handle the demand as the airlines buy more and more jets and the demand for air travel increases? Parking alone is a huge issue, as the number of automobiles in the country is also skyrocketing as citizens gain access to the middle class.
As aircraft become larger there are even more issues as a 747 or the new Airbus A380 unloading puts 1000's of people in the terminal all at once and connecting flights wait for the bottle neck. The issues are huge. New runways, taxi ways, landing systems, air traffic control towers, terminals, parking, emergency services, environmental care, conveyor belts, check in systems, security, cargo warehouses, IT Systems, computers, air-conditioning and all the private sector hotels, car rentals, ground transportation interface and trucking terminals. Think about how big this really is for a country growing this fast?
If you are traveling to India expect delays, traffic, inconvenience as the airports work thru their growing pains. In the United States we know all too well the truth of that advice, imagine the problem times ten. Think on this.
"Lance Winslow" - Online Think Tank forum board. If you have innovative thoughts and unique perspectives, come think with Lance; www.WorldThinkTank.net/wttbbs/
Many of India's smaller airports are dirt strips and in need of upgrade. There are major infrastructure projects needed to help these airports. Meanwhile aviation experts warn of air-traffic snarls and eminent safety issues. There are 100 civil airports in India and twelve are international airports. Meanwhile India's airline passenger traffic is expected to exceed 50 million in less than five years and that is at the current growth rates. One industry insider stated in a major Indian newspaper; ''We won't be able to handle all passenger traffic in coming years as is being envisaged now."
One consulting firm determined that it would take over 20 billion in capital investment to bring the airports into normal safety compliance of other countries in the next decade, some think much more as things progress. Thirty Billion in new airline aircraft have already been ordered from Boeing and Airbus and more are expected in the next two-years. Some industry analysts believe the number of new jets ordered of 490 is less than a third of what will be needed. This of course is great news for Boeing and Airbus.
India is also well located for the international traveler as a hub city to the Middle East, Europe and Asia as it sits along most direct routes and perfect for the World's traveling business crowds. But can the airports handle the demand as the airlines buy more and more jets and the demand for air travel increases? Parking alone is a huge issue, as the number of automobiles in the country is also skyrocketing as citizens gain access to the middle class.
As aircraft become larger there are even more issues as a 747 or the new Airbus A380 unloading puts 1000's of people in the terminal all at once and connecting flights wait for the bottle neck. The issues are huge. New runways, taxi ways, landing systems, air traffic control towers, terminals, parking, emergency services, environmental care, conveyor belts, check in systems, security, cargo warehouses, IT Systems, computers, air-conditioning and all the private sector hotels, car rentals, ground transportation interface and trucking terminals. Think about how big this really is for a country growing this fast?
If you are traveling to India expect delays, traffic, inconvenience as the airports work thru their growing pains. In the United States we know all too well the truth of that advice, imagine the problem times ten. Think on this.
"Lance Winslow" - Online Think Tank forum board. If you have innovative thoughts and unique perspectives, come think with Lance; www.WorldThinkTank.net/wttbbs/
Warning for Parents: Your Children May Be Having Lead For Lunch!
The Center of Environmental Health California (CEHCA) recently released a report finding very high levels of lead in children's soft vinyl lunchboxes.
Lead is a toxic poison. Even the smallest amount can be harmful, especially in children. Children's bodies absorb more lead than adults and are therefore at a higher risk.
Initial independent laboratory testing commissioned by CEHCA found 17 lunchboxes with high lead levels -- anywhere from 2-90 times the legal limit! CEHCA is still testing and has not yet included testing hard plastic or metal lunchboxes.
The highest lead level found so far is the Anaconda lunchbox (by Targus International) which tested at 56,400 parts per million of lead. That's 90 times the 600 parts per million legal limit for lead in children's paint.
Most of the lead is found in the lining of the lunch boxes, where lead comes in direct contact with your child's food. Simply handling the lunchboxes just before eating can expose your kids.
Lead was also discovered on the surface of the lunchboxes. Lara Cushing, Research Director for CEHCA says "It's not bound up in the plastic. It's sloughing off. It can come off on your hands. It can rub off on your food."
CEHCA believes lead has been intentionally added to the vinyl (PVC) plastic as either a stabilizing agent or pigment.
The CEHCA has filed lawsuits against the makers /retailers of these soft vinyl lunchboxes. Here is a partial list of the manufacturers:
Toys R Us
Warner Brothers
DC Comics
Time Warner
Walgreens
These themed lunchboxes should be avoided: Angela Anaconda Superman Tweety Power Puff Girls Hantaro
It is impossible to tell by appearance if a vinyl lunchbox contains these high levels of lead. CEHCA therefore advises parents to avoid lunchboxes altogether and use cloth or paper bags instead.
CEHCA Executive Director Michael Green wants manufacturers to recall their soft vinyl lunchboxes "to take action to eliminate lead from their products in the future."
CEHCA advises purchasing a lead-test kit. Sixwise recommends either PACE's Lead Alert or Leadcheck (which can be bought online at leadcheck.com). Both are around $15, come with instructions and will give you peace of mind.
If the lunchbox tests positive, discontinue use and send it to CEHCA. They'll add your contaminated lunchbox to their investigation.
Symptoms of Lead Poisoning
Lead has no known physiologic value to the human body. Exposure to lead comes primarily from breathing in or ingesting lead.
Lead can impair brain development and cause hearing problems, brain/nerve damage, stunted growth, digestive problems, and reproductive problems (including infertility and spontaneous abortion).
According to the Agency for Toxic Substance Disease reported 1 in 6 children in US has a high level of lead in their blood.
Nearly half a million children living in the United States have blood lead levels high enough to cause irreversible damage to their health. Here are some key symptoms of lead poisoning to watch for:
Stomachaches Depression High blood pressure Anemia Fatigue Liver/kidney damage Osteoporosis Paralysis Blindness Mental retardation Constipation/Diarrhea Aggressiveness Muscle pain/weakness Weight loss Learning disabilities Decreased metabolism Anxiousness Convulsions Even death with chronic exposure Poor appetite Hyperactivity Headaches Coma Death
If your child has any of these symptoms, check with your doctor about having their blood lead levels checked.
Lead In Our Homes, Offices, Parks and Playgrounds
Lead is a soft, heavy, blue-gray metal that occurs naturally in the earth's crust.
In most cases lead is released into our atmosphere through our burning of fossil fuels, mining, and factory manufacturing.
Although some lead compounds can be altered by sunlight, air and water, lead does NOT break down. Lead, once airborne, can also travel long distances before settling into the ground.
80% of homes built before 1978 used lead-based paints
Our children can easily be exposed to lead by ingesting lead-based paint chips or playing in contaminated soil. Lead has been found on at least 1,026 of the 1,467 National Priorities List sites identified by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
According to the CDC 80% of US homes built before 1978 can contain lead based paint. Lead is still found in ammunition, some batteries, as well as medical and scientific equipment.
In the last 20 years, the US has removed lead from gasoline, paints, and many other products. Though these are critical changes, lead remains in the environment ... and even in seemingly innocent products like lunchboxes.
This article was provided by the world's #1 most popular and trusted holistic living e-newsletter -- FREE to you right now at http://www.SixWise.com! The old way of thinking: "holistic living" pertains only to personal health. The new way of thinking: "holistic living" means prevention of the negative and adherence to the positive in all SIX practical areas of life: relationships, finances, career, home environment, safety and health. With the SixWise.com e-newsletter, you will get holistic wisdom from the world's top experts in all six of these areas -- completely FREE with a simple sign-up (and a guaranteed no-spam policy!) at http://www.SixWise.com
Lead is a toxic poison. Even the smallest amount can be harmful, especially in children. Children's bodies absorb more lead than adults and are therefore at a higher risk.
Initial independent laboratory testing commissioned by CEHCA found 17 lunchboxes with high lead levels -- anywhere from 2-90 times the legal limit! CEHCA is still testing and has not yet included testing hard plastic or metal lunchboxes.
The highest lead level found so far is the Anaconda lunchbox (by Targus International) which tested at 56,400 parts per million of lead. That's 90 times the 600 parts per million legal limit for lead in children's paint.
Most of the lead is found in the lining of the lunch boxes, where lead comes in direct contact with your child's food. Simply handling the lunchboxes just before eating can expose your kids.
Lead was also discovered on the surface of the lunchboxes. Lara Cushing, Research Director for CEHCA says "It's not bound up in the plastic. It's sloughing off. It can come off on your hands. It can rub off on your food."
CEHCA believes lead has been intentionally added to the vinyl (PVC) plastic as either a stabilizing agent or pigment.
The CEHCA has filed lawsuits against the makers /retailers of these soft vinyl lunchboxes. Here is a partial list of the manufacturers:
Toys R Us
Warner Brothers
DC Comics
Time Warner
Walgreens
These themed lunchboxes should be avoided: Angela Anaconda Superman Tweety Power Puff Girls Hantaro
It is impossible to tell by appearance if a vinyl lunchbox contains these high levels of lead. CEHCA therefore advises parents to avoid lunchboxes altogether and use cloth or paper bags instead.
CEHCA Executive Director Michael Green wants manufacturers to recall their soft vinyl lunchboxes "to take action to eliminate lead from their products in the future."
CEHCA advises purchasing a lead-test kit. Sixwise recommends either PACE's Lead Alert or Leadcheck (which can be bought online at leadcheck.com). Both are around $15, come with instructions and will give you peace of mind.
If the lunchbox tests positive, discontinue use and send it to CEHCA. They'll add your contaminated lunchbox to their investigation.
Symptoms of Lead Poisoning
Lead has no known physiologic value to the human body. Exposure to lead comes primarily from breathing in or ingesting lead.
Lead can impair brain development and cause hearing problems, brain/nerve damage, stunted growth, digestive problems, and reproductive problems (including infertility and spontaneous abortion).
According to the Agency for Toxic Substance Disease reported 1 in 6 children in US has a high level of lead in their blood.
Nearly half a million children living in the United States have blood lead levels high enough to cause irreversible damage to their health. Here are some key symptoms of lead poisoning to watch for:
Stomachaches Depression High blood pressure Anemia Fatigue Liver/kidney damage Osteoporosis Paralysis Blindness Mental retardation Constipation/Diarrhea Aggressiveness Muscle pain/weakness Weight loss Learning disabilities Decreased metabolism Anxiousness Convulsions Even death with chronic exposure Poor appetite Hyperactivity Headaches Coma Death
If your child has any of these symptoms, check with your doctor about having their blood lead levels checked.
Lead In Our Homes, Offices, Parks and Playgrounds
Lead is a soft, heavy, blue-gray metal that occurs naturally in the earth's crust.
In most cases lead is released into our atmosphere through our burning of fossil fuels, mining, and factory manufacturing.
Although some lead compounds can be altered by sunlight, air and water, lead does NOT break down. Lead, once airborne, can also travel long distances before settling into the ground.
80% of homes built before 1978 used lead-based paints
Our children can easily be exposed to lead by ingesting lead-based paint chips or playing in contaminated soil. Lead has been found on at least 1,026 of the 1,467 National Priorities List sites identified by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
According to the CDC 80% of US homes built before 1978 can contain lead based paint. Lead is still found in ammunition, some batteries, as well as medical and scientific equipment.
In the last 20 years, the US has removed lead from gasoline, paints, and many other products. Though these are critical changes, lead remains in the environment ... and even in seemingly innocent products like lunchboxes.
This article was provided by the world's #1 most popular and trusted holistic living e-newsletter -- FREE to you right now at http://www.SixWise.com! The old way of thinking: "holistic living" pertains only to personal health. The new way of thinking: "holistic living" means prevention of the negative and adherence to the positive in all SIX practical areas of life: relationships, finances, career, home environment, safety and health. With the SixWise.com e-newsletter, you will get holistic wisdom from the world's top experts in all six of these areas -- completely FREE with a simple sign-up (and a guaranteed no-spam policy!) at http://www.SixWise.com
A Travellers Guide to Romania
A member of the European Union since 2007, Romania is a country of almost 92,000 square miles - roughly the same as the UK - but with a population of only 22m people.
This one time communist state has borders with Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, the Republic of Moldova and the Ukraine. To the east it has a Black Sea coastline of about 120 miles. The Carpathian Mountains are in the north east and the Transylvanian Alps are in the centre. The Danube marks the southern border.
Bucharest, the capital, is in the south and home to 2m Romanians. Other major cities include Arad, Oradea and Timisoara to the far west, the Black Sea town of Constanta (the country's largest port) to the east, and the centrally situated Brasov and Sibiu.
Principal tourist destinations are Bucharest, Black Sea resorts such as Mamaia, Eforie, Neptun, Jupiter, Venus, Saturn and Mangalia, and mountain resorts such as the Prahova Valley close to Brasov.
There are also many spas (offering mud baths and various cures and reinvigorating treatments) and national parks, and ancient towns such as Tirgoviste, the 15th century capital ruled over by Vlad the Impaler - immortalised in literature as Count Dracula.
Ski resorts include Poiana Brasov, the most developed although still small by western European standards, Busteni and Predeal.
The main international airport is Bucharest-Otopeni (opened in 1970), located just over 10 miles from central Bucharest. Constanta - Mihail Kogalniceanu, Timisoara, Arad, Sibiu, Suceava also have international airports.
Romania generally has warm summers but cold winters when the average temperature is minus 3 degrees C. The mean annual temperature is 11 degrees C in the south and 8 degrees C in the north.
Annual rainfall is highest in the mountains but otherwise rises from east to west.
Reforms since the 1989 fall of the Ceausescu regime and more recently entry into the EU, Romania has experienced economic major development and advances in its infrastructure including new motorways. Arrival of international banks has made finance, including mortgages for house purchase, more readily available.
The Foreign Office says most visits to Romania are trouble free although like most places there is an underlying threat from terrorism. The main types of incident for which British nationals required consular assistance in Romania in 2007 involved petty crime, especially replacing lost or stolen passports. 'Beware of young pickpockets in city centres especially in crowded areas', it warns.
Visitors are advised 'to maintain at least the same level of personal security awareness as in the UK'.
Health risks include rabies - there have been outbreaks in rural areas - and Hepatitis. There have also been outbreaks of Avian Influenza in the Danube Delta, Transylvania and Bucharest although the Romanian authorities have taken measures to contain the outbreaks and the risk to humans is believed to be very low - no human infections or deaths have been reported.
Other possible hazards include earthquakes, which are not uncommon in southern and south western Romania, with small tremors recorded throughout the year. The last major earthquake was in late November 2005 although there were no casualties or significant damage.
Property prices, especially in Bucharest, have been rising fast with annual increases of 30 per cent to 40 per cent not uncommon. Demand, both local and from overseas investors, has outstripped supply of modern dwellings. With a strong economy, supply is likely to be behind supply for some time to come.
Romania has a land registry and the buying process follows the continental model, with the formal paperwork - including a purchase contract and final contract and registration - overseen by an official notary.
Until the EU entry non-Romanian citizens were not allowed to own land. However that changed with EU membership. Now EU citizens can acquire land in Romania, subject to a five year deferral in the case of residential property and seven years in that of agricultural land, forests and forestry. When the deferral period expires the ownership of the land will pass to the buyer.
None of this affects the ability of the foreign buyers to rent their properties or to sell them before the deferral period expires.
Up to date property sales in Romania can be found at Fly2let.net the free unbiased resource for overseas property investors. For UK buy to let information visit Residentiallandlord.co.uk.
This one time communist state has borders with Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, the Republic of Moldova and the Ukraine. To the east it has a Black Sea coastline of about 120 miles. The Carpathian Mountains are in the north east and the Transylvanian Alps are in the centre. The Danube marks the southern border.
Bucharest, the capital, is in the south and home to 2m Romanians. Other major cities include Arad, Oradea and Timisoara to the far west, the Black Sea town of Constanta (the country's largest port) to the east, and the centrally situated Brasov and Sibiu.
Principal tourist destinations are Bucharest, Black Sea resorts such as Mamaia, Eforie, Neptun, Jupiter, Venus, Saturn and Mangalia, and mountain resorts such as the Prahova Valley close to Brasov.
There are also many spas (offering mud baths and various cures and reinvigorating treatments) and national parks, and ancient towns such as Tirgoviste, the 15th century capital ruled over by Vlad the Impaler - immortalised in literature as Count Dracula.
Ski resorts include Poiana Brasov, the most developed although still small by western European standards, Busteni and Predeal.
The main international airport is Bucharest-Otopeni (opened in 1970), located just over 10 miles from central Bucharest. Constanta - Mihail Kogalniceanu, Timisoara, Arad, Sibiu, Suceava also have international airports.
Romania generally has warm summers but cold winters when the average temperature is minus 3 degrees C. The mean annual temperature is 11 degrees C in the south and 8 degrees C in the north.
Annual rainfall is highest in the mountains but otherwise rises from east to west.
Reforms since the 1989 fall of the Ceausescu regime and more recently entry into the EU, Romania has experienced economic major development and advances in its infrastructure including new motorways. Arrival of international banks has made finance, including mortgages for house purchase, more readily available.
The Foreign Office says most visits to Romania are trouble free although like most places there is an underlying threat from terrorism. The main types of incident for which British nationals required consular assistance in Romania in 2007 involved petty crime, especially replacing lost or stolen passports. 'Beware of young pickpockets in city centres especially in crowded areas', it warns.
Visitors are advised 'to maintain at least the same level of personal security awareness as in the UK'.
Health risks include rabies - there have been outbreaks in rural areas - and Hepatitis. There have also been outbreaks of Avian Influenza in the Danube Delta, Transylvania and Bucharest although the Romanian authorities have taken measures to contain the outbreaks and the risk to humans is believed to be very low - no human infections or deaths have been reported.
Other possible hazards include earthquakes, which are not uncommon in southern and south western Romania, with small tremors recorded throughout the year. The last major earthquake was in late November 2005 although there were no casualties or significant damage.
Property prices, especially in Bucharest, have been rising fast with annual increases of 30 per cent to 40 per cent not uncommon. Demand, both local and from overseas investors, has outstripped supply of modern dwellings. With a strong economy, supply is likely to be behind supply for some time to come.
Romania has a land registry and the buying process follows the continental model, with the formal paperwork - including a purchase contract and final contract and registration - overseen by an official notary.
Until the EU entry non-Romanian citizens were not allowed to own land. However that changed with EU membership. Now EU citizens can acquire land in Romania, subject to a five year deferral in the case of residential property and seven years in that of agricultural land, forests and forestry. When the deferral period expires the ownership of the land will pass to the buyer.
None of this affects the ability of the foreign buyers to rent their properties or to sell them before the deferral period expires.
Up to date property sales in Romania can be found at Fly2let.net the free unbiased resource for overseas property investors. For UK buy to let information visit Residentiallandlord.co.uk.
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